Metro-are home prices rise 15% over a year ago”
The above according to Margaret Jackson in The Denver Post, March 10, 2010.
Why can’t you believe newspaper headlines?
Because they are written to attract readers, NOT to inform. This may be one of the more egregious misrepresentations. If consumers read the headline and then the article, they would likely come away believing that their house has indeed risen in value and/or that they should buy now because prices are rapidly increasing. Neither is really true.
Why not?
Because for the purposes of most consumers, medians are not useful and gross market statistics are even less so. Medians simply indicate are that half the homes sold above this figure and half sold below. Consumers want to know how the market affects them. While I could not check every neighborhood and Zip Code, I did check two areas. One, a popular area in the City of Denver and one, a desirable area in the suburbs.
The results tell a different story from the article
Using the same methodology as the article, the Denver neighborhood showed a 16% decrease in the median and the suburban neighborhood a 6% decrease. Even within these individual neighborhood there are varying results for individual types and prices of home. Medians can change a lot based on the distribution of sales prices above and below.
What information can I trust?
The best will be from a market analysis prepared by someone you know and trust who is in the real estate business. That analysis will compare your home to recent activity in your neighborhood. Another option is to watch for articles that reflect information from the “Case-Schiller” index. Those of you following my blog know that I place more credibility with this index because it traces “same home sales”. Even with Case-Schiller you will want to look at the “micro”, not the “macro” figures. Just as with politics, all real estate is local.
Need some help?
You can contact me. I am an Exclusive Buyer’s Agent and have been representing only buyers for 20 years.
Russ Murray russ@buyerbroker-denver.com 303-721-1100, ext 1
Surprising Parker, Colorado Statistic
Just doing my job!
In the process of looking for possible homes for a client in the Parker area, I conducted a search for recent sales with the idea that those statistics would be an indication of what to expect in the “for sale” category over the next few months.
What were the criteria?
Pretty general. $400,000 to $600,000 on a minimum half acre site.
And the results were?
Drum roll. Eight homes. SEVEN of the eight were “lender owned” homes and most were new construction in the same community. The sales prices were 30% to 40% under the original asking prices.
Is there a message?
Perhaps two. One is that homes more distant from employment centers are always hit the hardest in a real estate recession. Second is that there are some really good deals out there as long as you can see yourself in the home for 5-7 years.
Want some expert assistance?
I am a 20-year exclusive buyer’s agent (EBA) who always and only represents the interests of my buyer clients.
Russ Murray 303-721-1100, ext. 1 russ@buyerbroker-denver.com
Your Home – Shelter or Investment?
I have a conversation frequently with my clients regarding the projected appreciation of their home value. I always say that I help people to purchase homes and shelter, not investments. Many have friends and person experiences where house values have increased 10%, 15% and even 20% in one year. I have observed those years. Funny thing is that owners are much less likely to mention the last three years when much of those gains disappeared.
What is the reality of home appreciation?
I have tracked several representative homes in a number of markets over 20-year periods. That is longer than many people own homes but is representative of a longer term look at the market. Looking at an example of a home in a south suburban Denver area neighborhood, I find a purchase at just under $200,000 in 1990 and a value today, in 2010 of just under $400,000. At first glance, that looks pretty good. Value up by 100%.
However, what it really represents is appreciation of about 4.0% per year. And that is without considering the repairs, replacements and updates that would be typical over a 20-year hold. There are many other factors to consider but those are outside the purpose of this discussion. What I am trying to establish here is a realistic look at changes in house values. There are some neighborhoods that have done a little better over a similar period and some that have done worse.
How should this affect my decision about purchasing?
Well, you can probably see that over an extended period that you will have enjoyed shelter and had the enjoyment of being a home owner. The value of that shelter has kept up with inflation. Certainly better than a car that immediately begins to depreciate and has little value after being used for 20 years.
You may get lucky and turn over your home during one of those 3 to 5 year periods of major appreciation. You must also be prepared for the flat and depreciation times as well.
With a realistic look to the future you can make an informed decision. Contact me if you have questions regarding your home purchase.
Russ Murray, Exclusive Buyer’s Agent 303-721-1100, ext.1 russ@buyerbroker-denver.com
Ask for references? What a concept!
Background
When I began my business of representing buyers as an Exclusive Buyer’s Agent (EBA) twenty years ago I made a commitment that every consumer for whom I would work would be on my “reference” list unless they specifically requested otherwise. None have made that request. I think that they too feel an obligation to pass on their experience. I felt that consumers deserved the opportunity to talk to prior clients in order to make an informed decision regarding their representation.
How many references is enough?
I suggest asking for the contact information for all clients for at least the prior 24 months. That will address several questions. First, how active is the licensee? If that list is much below 20 clients, you may be working with someone who is either not very active in the market or is new to the business. Everyone has to start somewhere so if it is the latter and the person is new, suggest that you also get to meet their “mentor”. You need to know what kind of support will be available to a less experienced licensee. If the person is “experienced” and just not active with representing buyers, you may want to consider continuing your search and find someone who is.
Okay, I have the references. What is next?
You can ask the prospective agent to indicate which buyers purchased in a similar area and/or price range and, if it is your situation, which were first-time buyers. You will probably benefit more from talking to buyers whose situation is most similar to yours. Questions to ask include: Was the broker readily available? How long did it take for calls to be returned? Did you ever feel pressured to make a decision before you were ready? When going through houses did the broker identify potential problem areas while also identifying stand-out features? Did the broker complete and explain a market analysis for the property on which you were offering? Did the broker have a list of inspectors for you to consider? Did the broker attend the inspection? How did you feel about the advice regarding the Inspection Notice and the broker’s follow-up regarding inspection corrections? Did the broker attend the closing and provide answers and guidance? And finally, would you engage the broker for your next purchase and recomment him/her to your sister and/or to your best friend?
How many should I call?
Enough to be satisfied with the results. Probably four to six. If someone was not satisfied try to find out why and ask others about the same issue. It is possible that it was a one-time occurrence so factor that into the overall responses.
The result.
You should now have evaluated the prospective agent’s resume’, interviewed references and had an in-person interview. You are the “employer”. You can now make and informed decision and hire the person who will best meet your needs and expectations.
If you want to consider a person for the important position of representing your real estate interests, please consider me as your EBA.
Russ Murray 303-721-1100 russ@buyerbroker-denver.com
Why Evaluate HOA Financial Documents?
The “Situation”
If you are purchasing a home in a community where the HOA is doing more than just maintaining some common areas and scheduling trash pick-up then you want to carefully review the financial condition of your association as a part of your contractual due-diligence. In Colorado this is included in the State mandated contract although you may want to get more questions answered than the minimum information that is required therein.
It has been my observation for many years that builder/developers grossly underestimate the dues and do so almost intentionally in order to attract buyers. With new construction I always ask to see the basis for the budget and it is usually “unavailable”. If you buy into a new community and move in less than ten years you will probably not have a problem. It is at this ten-year plus point when major components begin to wear out that the residents begin to find that the “reserve for replacement” line item in the financial is really important.
What To Look For and Ask
You can learn a lot by walking through your prospective community and looking at the condition of the buildings and landscaping. Is there peeling paint, curling roof shingles, deteriorating paving and/or dead or poorly maintained grass and shrubs? If the answer is yes to any of those questions, you may be looking at a community that has insufficient cash flow to keep up. The result will be dues increases and/or “special assessments”.
So if you are buying into an existing community it is that, or a similarly named category, that you need to review carefully. You should be able to learn from the property management company how much they are forecasting to need and how that relates to what is currently in the account. Ask if there have been recent “special assessments” and if any are anticipated. Have there been recent dues increases and/or recommended increases? The reality is that most documents are written so that the increases are limited unless approved by a super-majority of the residents so it is responsible for the board to apply the maximum every year to try to stay ahead.
Avoid Surprises
Do not allow the seller or the management company to evade your questions. If you become uncomfortable with the answers and information then exercise your right to terminate the contract. I have a questionnaire available for my clients that we have the seller submit to the management company that addresses many of the above questions plus other important issues. If you would like the assistance of an experienced broker who always and only represents the interests of his buyer/clients, please contact me.
Russ Murray 303-721-1100, ext. 1 russ@buyerbroker-denver.com
Denver Home Prices Up Again
This Information From Case-Shiller
If you are reading this on a regular basis you may recall two facts regarding my opinion of “trend reporting”. The first is that what you really need to know about is your neighborhood, not the metro area as a whole. The second is that the index that I trust the most is the one from Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller because it tracks “same house sales” and thus is not skewed by more expensive or less expensive homes being sold in a given period.
Denver Shows 1.2% Increase in December 2010
This “increase” is a comparison to December of 2009. While this may not tranlate into results for your specific neighborhood, it begins to become significant for two reasons. First is the obvious. For those of us in the market, up is certainly better than down. Second, and perhaps more important, it is the second consecutive month to show an increase. I am not enough of a statistician to know whether or not that is an official “trend”, but with the 0.5% increase in November, we are looking at two up months with the December increase more than double November’s. With the first-time buyer incentive having been scheduled to end on November 3oth, (It was subsequently extended, but not in enough time to have a major effect on December closings.) the December increase is more “market” driven than “incentive” driven.
Watching The Market Through A Rear-View Mirror
This information has value to you if you are considering purchasing your first home or making a move up. This the third real estate recession that I have lived through in my professional career. With each of the first two, the price increases were the most significant during the early part of the recovery which kind of happened while I was not looking. My best observation right now is that we will begin to see that increase sometime in the second half of 2010. Watch for the local employment figures to improve and see if the same index shows year-to-year increases again for January. If that occurs then the time to buy will be in 2010. If you are hoping to benefit from the ”first-time buyer” or “existing owner” purchase tax credits you have until April 30, 2010 to be “under contract” to receive full benefits. You will want to read the specific statutes that are applicable to your purchase.
What help should I have for my purchase?
You will want a broker who is committed to your interests. That is typically an Exclusive Buyer’s Agent (EBA). EBA’s always and only represent the interests of buyer-client and never list and sell homes. I am an experienced EBA and would be happy to discuss your real estate needs in the Denver area.
Russ Murray 303-721-1100, ext.1 russ@buyerbroker-denver.com
Considering New Construction In The Denver Area?
New Can Be Nice!
What have the builders done?
Well, if we take a look back to the beginning of the decade, single family new construction starts were at 15,000 units per year. For calendar year 2009 the new start figure was 2,400 (not a misprint). That is a huge reduction. It does indicate that this time around the builders are not getting so far ahead of demand that they have huge amounts of excess inventory. It is also significant to observe that several large regional and national builders have left the denver market. Many smaller builders are simply out of business.
How does that affect you as a potential new home buyer?
If you have your heart set on a new home where you get to select a site and all of the options and and finishes, then you should expect that you will be paying more than if you purchased a very similar home constructed in the last 3-5 years. How much more will depend on your negotiations with the builder. They builders will not build below cost, but they do want to keep their activity, employees and subcontrators busy so will build a lot closer to “cost” than in the past. If you find a new home that is esentially complete, there may be some room to negotiate price, additional upgrades or perhaps landscape.
Is there a better/best decision?
Over a 3-5 year ownership, you will probably be ahead by negotiating a purchase of an existing newer home. It will probably have basic landscape and window coverings in place and components should not be “wearing out” over that period.
How can I make that determination?
With an experienced agent on your side you can evaluate both options and then know what the financial difference is between the new vs. the existing. For some buyers, the incremental cost of “new” is simply worth it.
You can contact me for assistance. I am familiar with the builders and how to negotiate with them.
Russ Murray 303-721-1100, ext. 1 russ@buyerbroker-denver.com
Highlands Ranch $350,000 to $450,000
From time to time it is instructive to look at an area from a more “micro” perspective. If you have read some of my posts then you know I really do not like “Denver” statistics because they so often hide neighborhood data on which consumers really need to be making decisions.
So, looking at 2008 vs. 2009 Highlands Ranch activity with the broad brush, we find a reduction in total sales 2008-2009 from 1592 to 1359 (down 15%) with average and median prices remaining pretty constant for both years at $341,000 and $301,000 respectively. The average price per square foot dropped from $158psf to $155psf (down 2%). Lets take a look and see if the $350,000 to $450,000 segment performed the same.
This segment represents about 20% of the homes sold in HR for both years. The average and median prices were both down a relatively insignificant 1% but the price per square foot dropped by 5%; more than twice the rate of the market taken as a whole.
There must be some meaning here.
With relatively level average and median prices, the reduced PSF figure for the overall HR market indicates deterioration in that market with buyers able to purchase larger homes for the same price as the prior year. With a doubling of that PSF figure for the $350-$450 segment, we can conclude that this price range is not doing as well as the overall HR market. That should make for better opportunities for buyers.
I am curious about your specific experiences so leave a comment or give me a call.
I will address market segments in HR and in other markets in future posts.
Russ Murray 303-721-1100, ext. 1 russ@buyerbroker-denver.com
How will Colorado handle growth?
Are the resources and infrastructure available?
One of my friends just forwarded to me an article by Alan Gionet of CBS-4 that indicated our state population is now approximately 5,000,000 (That was a surprise!) and expected to grow to 7,700,000 over the next 25 years. (An even bigger surprise!) The “rate” of growth is projected to be slower than in the 1990’s. That slower rate notwithstanding, 2,700,000 people is a huge addition. Also in the last few days I have read that the number of building permits for residential construction is down by at least 50% from 2008 to 2009 and down by 80% from 2007 to 2009. We regularly read that water supply in the state is limited. So, the population is growing both from births and from relocations and at the same time we are not creating new housing units and do not appear to be making progress regarding sources of water. Colorado clearly has some major planning to do and must do that planning sooner, not later.
Why more growth here?
Quality of life is one of the attractions to Colorado. The recent “Gallup-Healtways Well Being Index” shows Boulder as the number 1 city nationally in their well-being survey and Colorado a the number 7 state (down from #4 in 2008). People will continue to come here and those already here are not leaving. This post will not be lengthy enough, nor is my knowledge broad enough, to answer the question of how to reconcile the projected growth with the available resources. I will hopefully bring some clarity to the questions.
Enough housing?
On the housing side, the system will eventually meet the demand. It will probably be behind for awhile, at least until the banks are comfortable with speculative lending, and that will cause upward pressure on home prices and rents. The system is not particularly efficient so during this next twenty-five years there will also be a time or two of oversupply. The growth will also cause homes that are currently closer to places of employment to go up in value at a higher rate than the new and more outlying homes. (This phenomenon is nothing new, but will become even more pronounced.)
What about water?
Water availability is altogether another situation. Many areas are using deep wells as a source and these levels are dropping. The only disagreement seems to be how fast the aquifers are being depleted. Water law in Colorado is complex and the state has agreements that require a certain amount of the runoff water to move downstream. To make things even more “interesting”, most the moisture falls in the form of snow on the western slope and most of the people live on the eastern slope. I did some research in preparation of writing this post and actually came away feeling better as it relates to water. My conclusion will not make everyone happy.
From the most recent figures that I could find, Colorado agriculture represents about 90% of the water used in the state. Yes, 90%. At the same time, agriculture employs 2% of the work force and provides just $2 billion of Colorado’s $236 billion Gross Domestic Product. Developers and municipalities are already purchasing agricultural water rights. That is likely to continue and suggests that there will be water to sustain significant population growth without a major effect on the GDP. Right now, many farmers are finding that the economics of selling their water rights are better than those from farming.
We’re “good”!
S0, I think Colorado has and will have the resouces for growth. Water may get a little more expensive and the price of housing will continue to increase.
And if you are moving here or already here and thinking of purchasing a home, you should have the most experienced and energetic Exclusive Buyer’s Agent on your side. That be me!
Russ Murray 303-721-1100, ext. 1 russ@buyerbroker-denver.com
Whose Figures to Trust?
Which Trend to Believe?
Which Trend to Believe?
There are many sources.
Many local media use figures from the MLS as compiled by a real estate broker and information from industry trade groups. As I read those reports, particularly beginning in late 2006, it was clear to me that the “compiler” was looking at the figures differently than I was seeing the same data. I was reporting in my monthly communication to my clients that I was seeing a slow down in volume and in price increases and many other licensees were talking about price increases and the strong market. Going into 2007, I was very busy while at the same time seeing more inventory and more negotiation. My clients were able to make decisions based on what was really happening, not what was reported.
All real estate is local.
Yeah, I know you’ve heard that about politics too. It is at least equally so for real estate. Even with the overall decrease in Denver area home values over the past few years there are pockets that have done much better along with those areas that have fared worse thant the averages. What you care about is the neighborhood where you are living or purchasing. Be certain that if you are purchasing that your broker evaluates your prospective home using sales in the immediate area. It is very easy to go outside and support a higher price. If you have been diligent in your reasearch and hired an Exclusive Buyer’s Agent (EBA) then you should have someone on your side who will be doing just that.
Area trends do have value.
It is worth knowing what is happening in the overall market as those trends can have some effect on all neighborhoods and are an indication of the condition of the area economy. So, back to the original question, whose figures to believe? I have looked at reports based on MLS data, Zillow data and Standard & Poors/Case-Shiller data. It is my opinion that the “S & P/Case-Shiller” methodology and therefore the results are most accurate. It is the only system that tracks “same house sales”, has built in filters for anomolies and considers whether the sale is a “lender/seller” or a consumer seller. The other two consider all sales and can be skewed by several extremely high dollar sales or by a proliferation of non-market transactions.
So, what is happening in the Denver area?
According to Case-Shiller, Denver is one of only four of the twenty cities that they track that showed overall price increases from November 2008 to November 2009 (The most recent month that has been released). Overall, the Denver changes show considerably less “swing” than does the 20-city index. Also, and very interesting’ is that the same graph is heading into positive territory.
Is it a good time to purchase in the Denver area?
Probably so for many neighborhoods. Check your target area very carefully as there are still areas where values continue to decrease. Better yet, engage me to assist with your purchase and know that I will always be on your side.
Russ Murray 303-721-1100 russ@buyerbroker-denver.com